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British pound to fall below parity with US dollar

GBPUSD Tech analysis by Simon Kazinsky on 19:18 July 08, 2019 EST


The pound remains one of the weakest currencies as the dollar index doesn't look back.

While the UK remains entangled in Brexit and the national GDP growth -measured in pounds- remains barely in positive territory British politicians take comfort in unemployment staying low and echo that the ongoing process to depart from the EU has not had a large effect in the national economy.

That's, of course, if you forget to take into account that the British currency has lost around 40% of its value in a decade and half of that has occurred after the referendum. Currency depreciation is the silent killer which is in addition masked by worldwide weak inflation due to the overcapacity created by the excess liquidity central banks has deposited in the hands of a few.

After a short recovery above 1.30 the British pound seems to have started a new wave lower against the US dollar. Most world currencies are feeling the heat of a strong dollar and even other typically strong currencies such as the Japanese Yen and the Swiss Franc are depreciating against the mighty buck.

On the contrary the pound remains weak against almost anything.

Retail traders are of course buying the pound with some forex brokers reporting more than 80% of the bets placed long GBPUSD.

The monthly chart reveals the pair is still in a long term well defined descending channel and that rises tend to be rejected when price hits the 56 wks mva.

With the above in mind we could be targeting the bottom of the lower trendline soon or at least aim to parity.


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