EURUSD Tech analysis by Simon Kazinsky on 21:50 March 17, 2019 EST
Bitcoin has been enduring a painful decline ever since derivatives of the crypto currency started to be traded in major stock exchanges at the end of 2017 but it is sporting at least a temporary breather.
There was a time when bitcoin was almost an inevitable topic of conversation as the unknown new currency was cryptic and in high demand. The intangible coin brifely reached $20,000 a piece on exchanges a day or two before the end of 2017. It is now well forgotten by the mass media and as an extend by everyone else.
However, even though bitcoin has suffered an 80% decline from its peak is well above the somehow stable prices before the mania and the subsequent burst started and its price lingers $4,000 after making a bottom in winter 2018 at around $3,000. That is a 25% appreciation in just a few months. Are we calling a bottom? Hell no.
The chart shows the long term fluctuations of bitcoin over the past three years and we can see clearly that the 200 day moving average has repealed price advances twice since the collapse started. Volatility is still quite high but much lower than in previous quarters and a consolidation phase appears to be in progress.
There is no medium term uptrend forming yet and before we can think of a bullish bias we need to see a break of the 200 day moving average and then some support holding on future declines. Until then and with 80% of retail traders long on the derivatives the bear has it.