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Hottest currencies this week

News by Allie Longford on 00:42 EST July 25, 2016
The Japanese yen is the indisputable champion after it ended on Friday making the biggest gain versus a basket containing all the majors. BoJ may not announce this week as much stimulus as some were initially expecting and that assumption strengthens the Asian currency at the expense of softer stocks. The US dollar was also strong and the dollar index appears ready for a new leg up. EURUSD is also on the brink of breaking ...

ECB to keep rates low for long

News by Newsroom on 08:43 EST July 21, 2016
The ECB's full statement on Thursday confirms that "the monthly asset purchases of €80 billion are intended to run until the end of March 2017 or beyond if necessary and in any case until it sees a sustained adjustment in the path of inflation consistent with its inflation aim" At today’s meeting the Governing Council of the ECB decided that the interest rate on the main refinancing operations and the interest rates on the marginal lending facility and the deposit facility will remain unchanged at 0.00%, 0.25% and -0.40% respectively. The Governing Council ...

Dollar index ready on the verge of breaking out

News by Newsroom on 14:14 EST July 20, 2016
The US dollar set a fresh month high against a basket of currencies on Wednesday after strong U.S. data and expectations that the Federal Reserve may raise rates before the end of the year gain some momentum. This week the Commerce Department data showed U.S. housing starts increased by 4.8 percent, underpinning a theme of strength in the economy. Fed funds futures rates imply investors see a 40 percent chance the Fed will raise interest rates by its December meeting up from less than 20 percent a few weeks ago as other major central banks around the world gear up ...

AUDUSD technical analysis

Tech analysis by Simon Kazinsky on 09:34 EST July 19, 2016
AUDUSD is again testing a Moving Average that has acted as resistance. For the past few sessions the Aussie appears weak versus most of the majors, including the troubled British pound. AUDUSD set a red candle on the weekly last week pointing to a reversal at a critical level. The outlook appears bearish for the pair particularly if 0.72 gives way. ...

NZDUSD technical analysis

Tech analysis by Simon Kazinsky on 09:25 EST July 19, 2016
The kiwi is still in a mid/long term decline. NZDUSD has been staging a temporary recovery since September last year when it set a medium term low at 0.62. The pair has reacted as it found a relevant Moving Average that previously acted as support and now has turned resistance. Last week left a significant red candle in a clear short term price action reversal in the chart and the short term continues this week. It therefore ...

What does a fail coup look like in a currency chart

News by Simon Kazinsky on 10:13 EST July 18, 2016
The answer, not much. The Turkish lira has been depreciating against the US dollar for the last few years, similarly to currencies of other emerging countries. As can be seen on the monthly chart the candle for the month of July is unlikely to look very different to others for this currency pair. Although it is a weak currency the Turkish lira offers a high yield. Turkey's central bank holds its key ...

Pound spikes and FTSE 100 turns negative as Bank of England leaves interest rates unchanged

News by Newsroom on 07:20 EST July 14, 2016
The Bank of England has surprised financial markets on Thursday by keeping interest rates on hold in July, as officials were split over unleashing further stimulus to boost the economy following the Brexit vote. In their first meeting since the referendum policymakers voted by 8-1 to keep interest rates on hold at a record low of 0.5pc. The rate has been unchanged for 7 years. Mark Carney, the Governor of the Bank of England, said last month that he believed some stimulus would be required over the summer to support growth while steering inflation back towards the ...

Australian dollar overvalued says top forecaster

News by Newsroom on 02:08 EST July 13, 2016
The yield premium that Australian debt offers over other developed market peers has helped the Aussie, but that might change with the Reserve Bank of Australia having more room than its counterparts to lower its benchmark, according to Unicredit SpA. The "overvalued" Aussie will underperform other commodity currencies such as the Canadian dollar and Norway’s krone, London-based Vasileios Gkionakis head of global foreign-exchange strategy at the firm said Bloomberg reports. With its benchmark interest rate at 1.75 percent is the best deal excluding New Zealand ...


Market in full greediness according to the Fear and Greed index

News by Newsroom on 01:12 EST July 13, 2016
The CNN's Fear and Greed index is now in extreme greed territory reaching an 88 reading in a scale from 0 to 100. The index takes into account 7 different factors: Put and Call Options,Junk Bond Demand,Market Momentum,Stock Price Strength,Extreme Greed,Safe Haven Demand,Stock Price Breadth and Market Volatility. All of them, except the last, sit now in extreme greed territory. ...

Pound rallies as May Prepares to become the new Prime Minister

News by Newsroom on 01:05 EST July 13, 2016
The pound rallied on Tuesday as Home Secretary Theresa May prepares to become the UK next prime minister, removing one layer of political uncertainty. Sterling rose to its highest level in a week versus the dollar as investors consider the implications of the new premiership on the upcoming UK negotiations with the EU. May is poised to take office by Wednesday night London time, replacing David Cameron after her only rival pulled out of the Conservative leadership contest Monday. The FTSE 100 Index of shares also rose and touched an 11-month high. The pound rose 1.4 ...

Yen biggest 2-day drop in two years on further stimulus hints

News by Newsroom on 00:59 EST July 13, 2016
The yen slid in its biggest two-day drop against the dollar since November 2014 as investors wait for details of the stimulus package advanced by Japan's Prime Minister Shinzo Abe. The Asian currency fell by more than 1 percent against all of its major peers after Abe said he planned to add fiscal stimulus after his victory in last weekend’s upper house election. The premier indicated on Tuesday he will order ministers to prepare plans for further measures aimed at supporting domestic demand. Global stocks took the news with enthusiasm and many indices are now ...

S&P 500 OPENS THE WEEK AT A NEW ALL TIME HIGH

News by Newsroom on 11:38 EST July 11, 2016
The Standard and Poors 500 index started the American session at a new record high trading above 2,040. Futures had anticipated earlier that the indice would finally smash the 2,037 mark made in summer 2015 and that held as the now old time high for more than a year. This is a bullish signal and, even though uncertainty is in the rise, the technical implications are that further upside could occur while stop losses placed above the 2,040 region by bears through the year unwind....

Most wanted currencies this week

News by Newsroom on 03:09 EST July 11, 2016
The week begins with the Japanese yen giving back some of the gains it made in the previous sessions. The Asian currency was the best performing currency within the majors group in the first week of July. Current economic uncertainties around the world make the yen attractive to investors as the currency is perceived as a safe haven regardless of the massive quantitative easing program implemented by the BoJ in previous ...

US non-farm payrolls surges beyond expectations

News by Newsroom on 10:39 EST July 08, 2016
The June US non-farm payrolls report smashed expectations on Friday in contrast with a very weak report the previous month. The US economy added 287,000 jobs in June The Labor Department said well above the 180,000 economists had forecast. The already weak May figure were revised even lower to 11,000 jobs from 38,000. Last month's turnaround was driven by job gains in leisure and hospitality, health care and social assistance, and financial activities. However, the unemployment rate rose to 4.9% in June from 4.7% in May. Wage growth was weaker than the forecast,...

FED minutes suggest rate hike unlikely in the near future

News by Allie Longford on 00:02 EST July 07, 2016
The Federal Reserve released on Wednesday minutes for its last meeting in mid June. Fed officials generally agreed then that it was "prudent to wait" for additional data before considering another rate rise. They wanted more time to see if the economy would keep improving and that new threats wouldn’t emerge after the June 23 Brexit vote. Divisions had already emerged inside the central bank in the weeks after a disappointing May jobs report. At the June meeting, officials sparred over the health of the labor market, the outlook for growth, ...

...and the snowball gets rolling, two other investment funds lock in their clients money

News by Allie Longford on 12:40 EST July 05, 2016
We reported yesterday on the UK based investment firm Standard Life removing participant clients of its real estate fund access to withdrawals for at least 28 days and the similarity of the event to Northern Rock bank run in 2007/2008 just ahead of the financial crisis. The contagion effect has started and two of the largest UK investment firms have joined on Tuesday in disallowing their clients access to withdrawals from similar funds. Aviva and M & G, blame the lack of liquidity as the reason that prompted them to suspend trading of their respective funds. The size ...

Standard Life suspends trading in a fund. Is this the 2016 Northern Rock moment for the UK?

News by Allie Longford on 15:29 EST July 04, 2016
Right before the crash of 2007/2008 there was this moment in UK history when a middle size bank whose core business was lending to stretched home owners / buy to let investors had to stop its operations as it run out of money. At first it did not look a big deal as the financial crisis was still in the horizon, the bank was of a medium size and the UK government and the Bank of England stepped in relatively quick. Although an isolated incident at first, in the UK this was the moment when something started to look uncomfortably wrong to some. The memory of depositors ...

Gold and silver start the week extremely well while oil remains weak

News by Newsroom on 14:55 EST July 04, 2016
Quiet Monday session as the US market remains closed for Independence day. Overall, NZD is the strongest currency against a basket of major currencies at the start of the week. In turn, USD is the weakest across the board. Oil drops by 0.7% which is quite substantial for a single session considering that, at the same time, other commodities like gold and particularly silver ramp up. Winner: NZDUSD 0.53% , Loser: USOil -0.69%, other winners: NZDJPY 0.46%, USDZAR 0.35% other losers: GBPNZD -0.49%, USDNOK -0.47% Volatility: ...

Best and worst world stock markets

News by Allie Longford on 05:30 EST July 04, 2016
Half way through the year south american countries lead the way in terms of stock appreciation though, its important mentioning that, most regional currencies are very depressed versus the US dollar. The weakness of the Argentinian sol is an extreme case after the country got rid of the populist Kitchner administration and the more pro free market new government put an end to the artificial exchange rate that pegged the ...

How are you fairing the short squeeze in equities?

News by Newsroom on 16:44 EST June 30, 2016
The short covering continues and some indices like the FTSE have made new year highs a few days after the Brexit shock. Are you invested in equities? Are you short? How are you doing amid this volatility?
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Mexico puts cojones on the table and raises rate by 50bps

News by Newsroom on 14:41 EST June 30, 2016
Bank of Mexico hiked rates on Thursday by 0.5% to a juicy 4.25%. The central bank worries about food inflation and wants to see public finance tightening. Peso rose above the post-brexit levels on the news and it is likely to revert the down trend against the dollar as the yield spread increases....

Standard and Poors downgrades EU rating

News by Newsroom on 13:10 EST June 30, 2016
Standard & Poor's Ratings Services today revised its outlook on the supranational institution, the European Union, to negative from stable. The 'AA+/A-1+' long- and short-term issuer credit ratings were affirmed. The outlook revision reflects the following: *Our expectation that the EU will provide first-loss guarantee support for financing connected to the Juncker Plan; *Further downward pressure on the average weighted rating on net budgetary contributors to the EU, as indicated by our negative outlooks on the second- and third-most important sovereign ...

And the bank nominated to become the Lehman Brothers 2016 edition is....

News by Newsroom on 11:55 EST June 30, 2016
One of the worst performing European banks this year is Deutsche Bank. The German bank has already fallen by 45% so far this year, and trades at ​​historic lows. According to the International Monetary Fund (IMF), is the entity with greater systemic risk in the world, and a potential external risk to the rest of the sector. It is not a good time for European banks, mainly because low interest rates weigh down margins. A scenario that 'Brexit' extends to the foreseeable future. In this context, Deutsche Bank is one of the entities in the center of the hurricane. ...

Pound slides further as Bank of England unveils more QE

News by Newsroom on 11:16 EST June 30, 2016
The pound is again in a new wave down against all currencies as Mark Carney unveils yet another QE program to ease the Brexit shock. Here are the main headlines from his intervention this afternoon in London: *some monetary policy easing likely over summer *MPC will discuss further policy instruments in aug *BoE mpc initial assessment july, new forecasts aug ir *faces trade-off stabilising ...

What instruments are cheap and what are expensive after Brexit

News by Allie Longford on 08:43 EST June 30, 2016
Blackrock has produced and interesting chart after Brexit that shows what instruments are cheap/expensive in historical terms and in comparison with other classes. As can be seen bonds issued by the world's leading economies are expensive both in comparison to equities and in historical terms too. US equities are, no major surprise, expensive if compared against any other major index. It ...

UK stocks recover ALL loses from Brexit in less than a week

News by Allie Longford on 12:43 EST June 29, 2016
The FTSE 100, the index for the largest companies trading in the London Stock Exchange recovered on Wednesday all loses made after referendum night last Thursday the British people voted to leave the European Union. It has taken less than one week for stocks to recover. Though it is not all good, banking related shares are still hovering the lows made on Friday and the pound remains equally ...

Apple Technical Analysis

Tech analysis by Simon Kazinsky on 20:38 EST June 28, 2016
We have been saying for a while now this Apple is subject to Newtonian forces that bring it down. Precisely, I flipped to a bearish view when shares started to trade below $120. The Cupertino company market cap is temporarily sustained by the last and strongest line of support, a Moving Average that has shaped price action for years and provided support in several occasions. In addition, the $90 level is now also part of a line ...

EURUSD technical analysis - bullish view prevail

Tech analysis by Simon Kazinsky on 20:11 EST June 28, 2016
The European Union is breaking up. For first time ever in its history a member will leave, voluntarily the union. This would intuitively prompt anyone to think the euro should collapse on the unexpected news last week. However, from a technical perspective, we have been insisting in the last few EURUSD technical analysis that the pair appears to be in a new bull cycle. ...

Surprise! The pound is the srongest currency today

News by Allie Longford on 16:55 EST June 28, 2016
After falling off a cliff last week the pound recovers some ground. The come back could merely be a dead cat bounce but it is worth noticing the strength of the, still united, kingdom. The pound is particularly strong versus the japanese yen as the day favours risk and investors come out from safe havens like the Asian currency into stocks and other assets trying to get them on the cheap. The dollar as ...

[VIDEO] The man responsible of the coming crisis warns of the coming crisis

News by Allie Longford on 11:29 EST June 28, 2016
No other than Alan Greenspan, the precursor of Helicopter Bernanke, the FED chair under the Clinton (Bill) administration, a period in which he steered the central bank's policy in the -still current- direction of artificially cheap credit to stimulate Americans, and drag the rest of the world, to rack up impossible to repay debt on home mortgages because, simply, every American deserved to own the property he lived in -whether he could actually pay for it or not- warns now the party is over. "This is the worst period, I recall since I've been in public service. There'...


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