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US quarterly GDP inline with expectations

News by Allie Longford on 08:35 EST May 27, 2016
The annualized change in the value of all goods and services produced by the US economy grew by 0.8% in the last quarter inline with consensus expectations according to the preliminary quarterly GDP figures from the Bureau of Economic Analysis on its latest release. The reading is better than that for the previous quarter when the economy expanded by 0.5%. The preliminary GDP price index which was released at the same time came at 0.6% modestly lower than expectations at 0.7%. Stocks shrugging off the data after the release as the S&P500 still idles in the 2,050 ...

Apple Technical Analysis

Tech analysis by Simon Kazinsky on 08:37 EST May 26, 2016
In our previous Apple technical analysis in early May we warned about the possibility of a rebound in the share price as the last long term support was about to be hit. Shares were traded at $94 after free falling from the $110 area while the support was at $90. Fast forward to today and the price of an Apple share is attempting to reclaim $100. The medium term outlook remains the same for the US giant. Major resistance is below ...

Consumers holding UK economy as investment and exports decline

News by Allie Longford on 05:38 EST May 26, 2016
Household spending rose by 0.7 percent, the fastest in almost a year, the ONS said on Thursday. The gain helped to offset declining exports and business investment. Economic growth overall slowed to 0.4 percent from 0.6 percent in the fourth quarter, unrevised from an initial estimate. The Bank of England cut its growth forecast this month and policy maker Gertjan Vlieghe has said that the economy may require more stimulus even in the event of a vote to remain in the EU. In the first three months of the year, investment fell 0.5 percent while services growth slowed ...

Gold Technical Analysis

Tech analysis by Simon Kazinsky on 03:15 EST May 26, 2016
Gold has failed to maintain above the last long term resistance as can be seen on the chart. The outlook for the precious metal remains still above very important supports located at $1,100 and $1,000. Above $1,300 the bullish outlook prevails and by then a longer term trend may have formed which will enable supports where to initiate buy positions. Until then the outlook remains moderately bullish awaiting for further direction. ...

Jeweler Tiffany posts steepest sales drop since financial crisis

News by Allie Longford on 13:44 EST May 25, 2016
The luxury brand Tiffany & Co reported its biggest drop in quarterly sales since the peak of the global financial crisis. Data is particulary weak in the Americas region. Tiffany's sales at stores open more than a year plunged 10 percent in the first quarter. Analysts expectations were already weak before the multinational's release. On average they had expected a 9.1 percent decline, according ...

British pound and stocks strong but oil suffering

News by Allie Longford on 12:57 EST May 25, 2016
Quick look at prices for the main currency pairs, commodities and indices halfway the US session. Overall, GBP is the strongest currency against a basket of major currencies while AUD is the weakest across the board. The winner among the main currency pairs however is USDZAR. With the south african currency getting hammered in the last feays the pair climbs 0.40%. Oil is getting clobbered today and ...

EURUSD Technical Analysis

Tech analysis by Simon Kazinsky on 07:33 EST May 24, 2016
The single currency has to make an effort really soon if it wants to avoid resuming its downtrend against the US dollar. After reaching the 1.16 mark EURUSD but unable to even test the upper boundary of the channel the pair has lost its shine quite rapidly. All supports are clustered in the 1.10-1.11 region and the pair trades at the time of writing at 1.116. Breaking below 1.105 will wash away all supports and shorting any ...

Reality versus expectations in the US economy

News by Allie Longford on 17:51 EST May 23, 2016
KBC group has compiled in a single chart the main macro data indicators associated to the US economy comparing the most recent actual data releases with consensus expectations from analysts pooled by Bloomberg. The surprise chart shows that US economic data as reported by Forex Status over the past few months has failed to meet market expectations. There were only a few exceptions, mainly coming from survey ...

World’s No. 2 currency trader says dollar rebound just the start

News by Newsroom on 13:11 EST May 23, 2016
The dollar’s three-week rally is just the beginning, according to Deutsche Bank AG on a note released on Friday and reported by Bloomberg. The German bank favors buying the U.S. currency versus emerging markets following a shakeout in speculative bets on the dollar. The dollar’s biggest gains will be versus emerging markets, partly because they rely less on Fed expectations the bank concludes....

Steady on the currency markets

News by Newsroom on 12:43 EST May 23, 2016
Quick look at prices for the main currency pairs, commodities and indices during the US session on Monday.Overall, EUR is the strongest currency against a basket of major currencies in an otherwise very quiet session. In turn, NZD is the weakest across the board. EURUSD is marginally higher and settles just above 1.12 while the rampant GBPJPY today sheds 0.62%. The New Zealand dollar loses some of its value against most of its counterparts and the South African rand drops by almost 1% against the US Dollar. Commodities a dash weak today with gold at $1247/oz ...

Forex Education - What is High Frequency Trading? An 8 minutes summary

Article by Allie Longford on 12:17 EST May 23, 2016
High frequency trading is an automated trading platform which utilizes powerful computers to transact a large number of orders at high speeds allowing traders to execute extremely high numbers of orders and scan multiple markets and exchanges in a matter of seconds, thus giving the institutions that use the platforms a huge advantage in the open market. In this 8 minutes video veteran British broadcaster Jeremy Paxman and writer Michael Lewis provide a glimpse of some of the strategies such as front-running and spoofing and the technology used for the purpose. ...

Strongest and weakest currencies this week

News by Allie Longford on 10:45 EST May 20, 2016
After a volatility week with the main topic of attention being the possible FED rate hike this coming June and Brexit the indisputable winner among the main currencies is the British pound. Not even the news of a potential rise on interest rates that would favour the value of the dollar and the hypothetical exit of Britain -albeit unlikely- made the GBPUSD any weak. Crossing the English channel in continental ...

Philly Fed dips to 3 month lows as new orders dive

News by Allie Longford on 09:00 EST May 19, 2016
Philly Fed has released its latest business survey. Overall, it paints a mixed picture. The index came below expectations at -1.8. Analysts where expecting a positive number. The data is even worse than for the previous month. On the other hand prices and investment rise. Here is a summary from its report: "This month's Manufacturing Business Outlook Survey suggests essentially no growth of the region's manufacturing sector. The survey's indicators for general activity, new orders, shipments, and employment all remained negative. Though indicators for future ...

Beware of the Head and Shoulders pattern at S&P500

Tech analysis by Simon Kazinsky on 08:41 EST May 19, 2016
The S&P 500 index is lingering the neckline of a textbook head and shoulder that has formed since march 2016. The neckline is in the 2035 area while the index trades at the moment of writing at 2038. If the head and shoulders pattern plays out the objective would be around 100 points below for a target around 1940....

Today marks the first anniversary of the all time high for the S&P 500

Tech analysis by Simon Kazinsky on 08:30 EST May 19, 2016
This day last year the Standard and Poors 500 made a run to reach 2,137. Since the 19th of May 2015 we have not seen a new high for this major index. The start of 2016 proved to be the worst in decades with the index dropping below the 2,000 mark and setting a low in the 1,800 region. Since then the S&P has been range bound between those two important levels. From a fundamentals point of view the past twelve months have seen the end of expansion of monetary supply by the Federal Reserve though maintaining its massive balance sheet and the first rate hike since the ...

Winners and losers on Wednesday

News by Newsroom on 15:34 EST May 18, 2016
Big moves in the markets at the end of the US session. A very busy session with lots of volatility and GBPAUD in full madness as the Britsh pound is the strongest currency against a basket of major currencies at the end of this session. In turn, NZD was the weakest on the day. The British pound was particularly strong versus currencies in the pacific region. The pound gained 1.28% versus the Australian dollar and 1.18% versus its japanese counterpart. Oil showed weakness and shed almost 1% of its value after being strong the previous days. Stocks seen lower ...

LLoyds bank optimist about UK's labour market

News by Newsroom on 15:23 EST May 18, 2016
Lloyds Bank is more optimist about the health of the UK labour market after new ONS figures showed a decrease in the number of unemployed in Britain along with an increase on earnings. According to their note, “Today’s UK labour market figures for the 3 months to March saw some continuity with recent trends. The unemployment rate was unchanged at 5.1% for the fifth month in a row, as expected, holding around a level at which capacity constraints might be expected to put upward pressure on wages. Yet there is still scant sign of significant pay pressure.”...

Gold drops sharply as Fed hints June rate hike

News by Newsroom on 15:12 EST May 18, 2016
Gold hit fresh lows dropping to $1,265 an ounce after the release of the Fed minutes in which FED officials are inclined for a rate hike in June if incoming data shows an improving economy. ...

Most Fed officials see June hike likely if economy allows

News by Newsroom on 15:06 EST May 18, 2016
Most Federal Reserve policy makers in April said an interest-rate increase would be appropriate in June if the economy continued to improve. “Most participants judged that if incoming data were consistent with economic growth picking up in the second quarter, labor market conditions continuing to strengthen and inflation making progress toward the committee’s 2 percent objective, then it likely would be appropriate for the committee to increase the target range for the federal funds rate in June,” according to minutes of the Federal Open Market Committee’s April ...

Oil makes a come back and Kiwi strong on Wednesday

News by Newsroom on 13:24 EST May 11, 2016
After a disastrous beginning of the week the black stuff recovers and climbs more than 4% in a single session against the US dollar. WTI trades back above $46/barrel on Wednesday. The New Zealand is also claiming some territory back after experiencing weakness the previous week along with other commodities linked currencies. The Kiwi is up by 0.84% against the buck on the US afternoon session. Oil correlated Norwegian Crown also advances by 0.91% against the US dollar and the loonie gains 0.63%....

Oil comes down once again on Monday

News by Newsroom on 12:28 EST May 09, 2016
This is a round up of the moves on the main currencies and indices. Oil shed almost 4% of its value on Monday and it is the weakest among the major traded instruments. WTI leaves an ugly red candle on the 8h chart and trades around $43 a barrel. The strongest currency at the beginning of the week is the swiss Franc while the japanese yen was the weakest. USDZAR performed extremely well and gained a 1.56%, GBPJPY also headed north with gains of 0.86% and 0.82%. On the other end of the scale Gold tumbled and lost 1.29% against the US dollar. Because of the ...

Most shorted currencies in May

News by Newsroom on 10:38 EST May 09, 2016
Nine days into the month of May and this is the long/short ratios for the main currency pairs. Forex retail traders are shorting the euro versus the US dollar in the same proportion as when EURUSD was climbing its way up to 1.40. More than 60% retail traders remain short. Silver, which has been over the last years the most loved versus the US dollar does no longer take the highest position in the podium as the most ...

Non Farm Payroll report highlights

News by Newsroom on 08:55 EST May 06, 2016
The Bureau of Labor Statistics released on Friday its latest Non Farm Payroll report. 160,000 jobs were created in April well below the 200,000 mark it was anticipated. Average Hourly Earnings m/m remain unchated at +0.3% and the unemployment remained at 5.0%. Labor Force Participation Rate came at 62.8% vs Expected: 63.0% and Previous: 63.0%. Overall, a very dissapointing report in line with other recent macro data that signal a weaking economy in the US. Stocks lower and EURUSD up after the release.

NFP pre release preview

Job growth is ...

US jobless claims rises by most in more than a year

News by Newsroom on 16:34 EST May 05, 2016
Following Wednesday dissapointing ADP payroll report further evidence of a job market cool down emerge in the form of the latest US jobless claims numbers released by the US Labor deparment. The number of Americans filing for unemployment benefits rose more than expected last week, posting the biggest gain in more than a year. Initial claims for state unemployment benefits increased by 17,000 to a seasonally adjusted 274,000 for the last week of April, the Labor Department said on Thursday. Last week'...

Apple Technical Analysis

Tech analysis by Simon Kazinsky on 12:25 EST May 04, 2016
We advised in late March that Apple has ended its bull cycle and entered into its decline. In addition we anticipated headwinds at the time as shares were trading in the $110 area just below very significant moving averages that had previously acted as support and resistance over the years. Fast forward to today and the price of Apple has tumbled down back to the line of ...

Silver technical analysis turns to bullish

Tech analysis by Simon Kazinsky on 12:02 EST May 04, 2016
After years remaining bearish on the precious metal we are finally changing our long term outlook from bearish to bullish. As can be seen on the chart silver first came out of the prevailing wedge on the weekly chart in the first months of 2015. The metal made a marginally lower low after that breaching the $14/oz mark and hoovering above it for weeks. Since then price has moved upwards and has now crossed moving ...

ADP employment report fails to impress

News by Newsroom on 11:29 EST May 04, 2016
ADP released on Wednesday morning its latest employment report. According to it the US economy added 155,000 jobs in the previous month, well below the 200,000+ it was previously anticipated and also below the figure for the previous month. The entire number was made up by the hiring of service based businessess (+166k) while goods producing companies reduced their headcount by 11,000. By industry sector all but manufactoring increased the number of workers on the payroll. In all, somehow disspointed figures that paint a labor market cooling down in line with ...

UK Unemployment rises for first time in a year

News by Newsroom on 09:19 EST April 21, 2016
The number of people looking for work in Britain rose by 21,000 to 1.7m in the three months running to February, according to the Office for National Statistics (ONS). The increase was the first recorded since the middle of last year. The unemployment rate was flat in the three months to February at 5.1pc. Meanwhile Ian McCafferty, a member of the Bank of England’s monetary policy committee (MPC), admitted that disappointing pay growth meant that the central bank’s interest rates would stay low for longer....

Philly Fed factory index sinks to -1.6 in April

News by Newsroom on 09:12 EST April 21, 2016
The Philly Fed dead-cat-bounce Dies, plunging back into contraction. The index came at -1.6, while it was expected to print in the +9 region. Philly Fed states that firms reported a notable decline in average work hours. However, the percentage of firms (23 percent) reporting a rise in new orders was exactly offset by the percentage reporting a decline....

ECB highlights, rates to remain low or lower for extended time

News by Newsroom on 08:39 EST April 21, 2016
Mario Draghi met the press in Frankfurt on Thursday afternoon after the ECB left its main refi rate unchanged at 0.0% in line with expectations at the latest meeting of the Governing Council of the European Central Bank. Here are the highlights from the press conference: * ECB has started extra unconventional purchases totalling 80 billion EUR/month * See rates at present or lower levels for extended time * QE will remain until at least March 2017, until there's a sustained inflation adjustment * ECB will act if needed using all tools at disposal * ...